We analyze, we remember and we will win!
And it seems, that people have become accustomed to the course of events. Therefore, it is important for citizens to know about possible further development of the situation in Ukraine.
There are many versions and assumptions when and how the war will be ended. Let's try to put forward our own solutions of this armed conflict, which involved the analysis and opinions of Lviv experts and scientists.
Will the resolution of the conflict in Donbas be peaceful?
As you know, over a year ago Russia annexed the Crimea, and now tries to capture Donbass with the "barbaric" method. Let’s try to find out what are the options to end this hybrid war and whether it is possible to solve it peacefully.
In our view, the return of Donbass region peacefully will fail. As evidenced by previous agreements in Minsk, that still destabilize the situation in Ukraine and bring great loss of life for our country. Perhaps the Kremlin will agree on a peaceful solution of undeclared war, but that does not mean, that the East of Ukraine will be free. Because militants may regard it as a betrayal of Putin and start a new "guerrilla" war. Somehow Ukraine will have to fight with fugitive terrorists, to stop the chaos in Donbas region. After all to find a consensus with militants through peaceful negotiations is impossible now.
According to Viktor Borshchewskiy, Doctor of Economics Institute for Regional Studies of NAS of Ukraine, peaceful conflict resolution in the Donbas region is only possible as a variant of "frozen conflicts", that in the long run will turn Donbass region into the "industrial desert".
However, according to Vasil Magas, PhD of Lviv National University of Ivan Franko the territory of eastern Ukraine should not withdraw from the Ukrainian influence.
What is the possible future of annexed Crimea?
"It is important, that they have recovered the lost economic ties, which bring benefits to Ukraine. In particular, we must define a very narrow list of production of raw nature, which should go to Ukraine. Clearly, this applies particularly to coal, "- said the scientist.
Equally important and still unresolved questions concerning annexed Crimea. And in Ukraine there is a great desire to return the peninsula, but it seems that our government has no alternative plan how to do it or just consciously doesn’t accept any solution in solving this problem. Therefore, the return of the Crimea is in standby mode.
The scientist Vasil Magas also notes, that outside Ukraine Crimea has no future. So it must be "surged" back and by the conditions imposed by Ukraine. It is only a matter of time.
"Crimea may be returned only in words of the Ukraine and its return is possible only in case of change of power in the Russian Federation. Indeed, under the control of various forces throughout its history, time has shown, that democratic future of peninsula is possible being part of our country. Otherwise - the Crimea is waiting the fate of South Ossetia or Abkhazia becoming a military base "- says Christina Melekestseva, political scientist.
According to the expert Viktor Borshchewskiy Crimea in the long run will be neither Russian nor Ukrainian. It either will be transformed into Crimean Tatar state, or will be acceded to Turkey (or the first one and then another).
When the war end can be possible and which consequences has to be expected for Ukraine and the Russian Federation?
We all understood, that sooner or later the military conflict in the Donbass region should be resolved and it's only a matter of time. But this time - is weighed in gold and the longer is the delay of the denouement, the more human losts will have both sides.
According to Vasil Magas freezing of the conflict is possible, explaining this, that nobody is interested in active hostilities. Over time, the support of the separatists by Russia will be reduced to a minimum level, that will allow from one hand - to support conflict, and from the other - to ensure its accountability. Russian-separatist forces will regularly "shoot". After all, they need to prove their usefulness or – just when drinking alcohol. It is important, that the Ukrainian side has learned to respond to such actions strictly and effectively. Then, the frequency and intensity of disturbance will be reduced.
"Putin did not expect this development, that is why his plan of annexation of Ukraine - partly broke. Besides Ukrainian army creates a strong resistance, nevertheless improper military equipment of Ukraine compared with Russia. Unexpected was also the support of the EU and the USA and its tough sanctions. Therefore, there is a noticeable weakening of the power in Russia, although it continues its aggression. This can not last very long, as the economy of the Russian Federation has undergone substantial costs. We all know, that this war is not profitable for both sides. Putin has already realized, that he could not gain a foothold in eastern Ukraine in a form of controlled newly formed republics, and to lay down arms and withdraw it – is not "Putin’s way". An alternative solution to this military conflict can only be controlled by the international community, by the introduction of peacekeeping forces, the signing of the peace accords and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine ", - said Taras Lozinskiy, a political scientist.
However, Mr Borshchewskiy inclined to think, that the war will continue until Russia or Ukraine (or both one, and the second time) disintegrate. A consequence of this war will be the transformation of the entire system of world order, including change of borders, both Ukraine and Russia and perhaps other countries of the continent.
According to Vasil Magas, Russia will be immersed in instability and chaos, because of its current attracting ideas and values of the state, where its citizens are just a resource – there is no prospects.
In summary, we do not reject the possibility of deploying large-scale war, which is traditionally carried out by geopolitical influence in the world. For as we see, the views of experts – are mixed. And the only thing in which their opinions are united – is, that the end of the war will be not soon. And speaking about terms of possible completion of military confrontation, the turn of events is affected by many factors, including:
- Strengthening the international community sanctions against Russia;
- The internal politics of the world;
- And especially the freedom of Nadiya Savchenko, whose liberty will mean hope for Ukraine.
And the most significant and decisive factor in this war can become unity all of us! Only together we – are the force, which can not be overcomed by any enemy!
Lets start combine for winning !!!
Taras Lozinskiy, Christina Melekestseva - political scientists of NGO "Community Development".